Declining Birth Rate and the Catholic Abuse Scandal

The average size of Catholic families in the West may be a key overlooked factor in the "Catholic Child Abuse" scandal.

Circa 1880 - With 10 children, and another on the way, Ma and Pa Kennedy might have not have thought too much of Father O'Brien's keen interest in their Patrick.

A vocation for the priesthood seemed "right enough" for their effete, quiet boy.

Fast forward 100 years to 1980. Young Patrick has just been picked up by Dr Mary Kennedy from server practice at Church. They are driving to piano lessons when Patrick bursts into tears. He informs his Mother that the priest...

"...messed with my weener"...

... Mum, and later Dad, the other Dr Kennedy, react with volcanic rage at the news from their only child.

Twee - but you may get the point.

The church has likely attracted a significant (if not relatively constant) fraction of child rapists to it seminaries over the last millenia or so.

The change the church may not have foreseen was how declining birth rates in developed countries (e.g the US and more lately Ireland), and the complementary rise in parental input per child, would have impacted the tolerance of parents for priestly shenanigians.

Basic population ecology. A shift in breeding strategy to increased parental investment vs fecundity is rewarded in more stable environments.

The church is big - but she may be no match for the drive for Mother Nature to protect her (genetic) investment in the future.